Jake's famous Chubasco Report

updated only during Chubasco season, around July to September, usually by around 02:15z to 02:30z.
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Chubasco

13 July 2026

NOTE: Expected quiet night for most of SOC, convection on mainland suspicious but currently north bound only. Recommend checking before going to sleep to ensure no wind direction change.

Chubascos:
—According to GOES band 13  (https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=mex&band=13&length=12&dim=1)  there is some serious mainland convection covering almost all of Sinaloa, but it is expected to continue north and stay away from the E coast of the Baja peninsula. If it were to cross the SoC, it would affect most of those who read this report. It seems to be growing, but no models show it will turn to the west. In addition, HRRR is showing wind direction blowing to the NE until about midnight, and then it is expected to turn slightly to NNW. This would keep the mainland convection away from us safely. Finally neither GFS nor ECMWF show a wind change to the West.

Tropical Storms:
—There is an offshore low pressure system off the several hundred miles off the Southwest coast. It is heading away into the Pacific. 80% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. In the next 7 days there is a 90% chance of cyclone formation. This is not expected to affect Mexico weather.

If in any of the following, reference your favorite sources for gap winds:

Agua Verde  
Loreto
San Juanico
Punta Trinidad
BLA Village    
Bahia Alcatraz

Sources:

Chubascos: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=mex&band=13&length=12&dim=1

Tropical storms: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Gap winds: Multiple sources


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Armand on SV Cosmo

This report was lovingly prepared by Jake formerly of the sailboat Jake, or one of his minions, , .